As an affiliate marketer, you know that the key to a successful campaign is promoting the right offer. Even with the best copywriting, creative angles, and advanced advertising techniques, a poorly converting offer can sink your entire campaign.
Now, when you log into an affiliate network, you are bombarded with hundreds of offers. And when you speak to your affiliate manager, they may recommend 2-3 offers for you to run.
So, how do you determine which of these two offers is the best for your campaigns and will generate profits? In this article, we will address all of that.
The importance of choosing the right offer
When you have multiple offers to choose from, determining which one will be the most profitable can be a daunting task. This is where split testing comes into play. Split-testing allows you to compare the performance of different offers and identify the one that generates the highest revenue. However, this raises two important questions: How many days should you spend testing an offer, and how much money should you allocate to the process?
The truth is, there's no universal formula that can answer these questions. The duration and budget of your split testing will depend on various factors, such as the traffic source you're using and the payout of the offers you're testing. What works for one affiliate marketer may not work for another.
The only way to determine a winner
So, what's the solution? The key is to conduct split tests. By splitting your audience and testing different offers, you can gather sufficient data over a significant period of time to make a reliable conclusion. This will help you determine if one offer performs better than another.
To do this properly, you can use a statistically significant calculator. If you're not familiar with statistical significance, it's important to grasp the fundamentals. Statistical significance refers to the probability that the difference in performance between two offers is not a result of luck, but rather a genuine difference that is supported by data
Using a Split Test Calculator
For beginners, relying on a split test calculator is crucial. While experienced marketers may be able to eyeball their results, using a split test calculator ensures accuracy and reliability.
There are very many old-school affiliate marketing calculator tools online. For this article, we shall use the SegMetrics Split Test Calculator. It is a simple and effective tool for this purpose.
When using the calculator, there are some key terms you need to understand:
- Visitors: The number of clicks on the offer's page.
- Conversions: The number of people who signed up for the offer.
- Control: The original offer you're testing.
- Variation: The second offer you are testing
- Confidence Interval: The percentage likelihood that your results will hold true in the future. Aim for a confidence interval of 95%
Scenario 1: Not enough data
If your confidence interval is below 95%, like 62% for example, it means you need to keep the split test running longer to gather more data. Without enough data, you can't make a reliable conclusion about which offer is performing best.
Scenario 2: Too much data
On the other hand, a 100% confidence level indicates that you've run the split test for too long. If the control offer was clearly performing best, running the test longer resulted in lost conversions and revenue. You want to identify the winning offer as soon as possible to maximize your profits.
Scenario 3: Just right
The ideal scenario is when the control offer emerges as the winner with a 95% confidence level. This means you've tested long enough to get reliable data, but not so long that you've missed out on potential conversions. Once you reach this point, you can confidently allocate all your traffic to the winning offer.
The art and science of affiliate marketing
To be successful as an affiliate marketer, it's crucial to test out different affiliate marketing offers. But it's not just about going with your gut feelings or making assumptions based on limited information. To get the best results, you need to use scientific methods and gather enough data to make informed decisions.
Affiliate marketing is a mix of creativity and analytics. Coming up with interesting angles, writing persuasive ad copy, and designing attractive landing pages requires creativity and intuition, which is the artistic side. On the other hand, analyzing how your campaigns are performing, understanding data, and conducting proper split tests requires precision and objectivity, which is the scientific side.
By combining both the artistic and scientific aspects, you'll be well-prepared to succeed in affiliate marketing.
Best practices for split-testing affiliate offers
To make the most of your split-testing, here are some best practices to follow:
- Test one variable at a time: When split-testing offers, it's essential to change only one variable at a time. This could be the offer itself, the landing page design, or the ad copy. By isolating each variable, you can determine which one has the greatest impact on your campaign's performance.
- Use a consistent traffic source: To ensure the accuracy of your split-test results, it's crucial to use the same traffic source for all the offers you're testing. Different traffic sources can have different demographics and behaviors, which can skew your results if not kept consistent.
- Set a clear goal: Before starting your split test, define a clear goal that you want to achieve. This could be a specific conversion rate, a certain number of leads, or a target revenue amount. Having a clear goal will help you determine when to stop the test and declare a winner.
- Monitor your results regularly: Don't set and forget your split test. Monitor your results regularly to ensure that the test is running smoothly and that you're gathering enough data to make a reliable conclusion. If you notice any anomalies or inconsistencies, analyze them further.
- Document your findings: Once your split test is complete, document your findings in detail. Note the offers you tested, the variables you changed, the traffic source you used, and the final results. This information will be valuable for future reference and can help you make better decisions in your upcoming campaigns.
Q&A with Ian Fernando
Q: How long should I test a new affiliate offer before deciding if it's profitable?
A: I recommend testing a new offer for at least 5-7 days. This gives you enough time to gather enough data and account for any daily fluctuations in traffic or conversions. For example, when I was testing two offers in the fitness niche, I ran the split test for 6 days. This allowed me to see that Offer X had a consistently higher conversion rate than Offer Y, with a confidence level of 95%. If I had made a decision after just 2-3 days, I might have come to the wrong conclusion due to insufficient data.
Q: What factors should I consider when determining my testing budget for a new affiliate offer?
A: When deciding on your testing budget, consider the offer's payout, the average cost per click (CPC) of your traffic source, and your overall marketing budget. A good starting point is to allocate 3-5 times the offer's payout for testing. For instance, if the offer pays $30 per lead, consider setting aside $90-$150 for testing. Keep in mind that higher-quality traffic sources may have a higher CPC, so you'll need to adjust your budget accordingly. In my experience, I once tested a travel offer with a $50 payout and allocated $200 for testing using Facebook Ads. This gave me enough room to optimize my targeting and ad creatives while staying within my overall budget.
Q: Can I still profit if I spend too much time testing an affiliate offer?
A: While thorough testing is essential, spending too much time on a test can eat into your potential profits. If you continue testing an offer even after achieving a 95% confidence level, you may miss out on valuable conversions and revenue. I once fell into this trap when testing two offers in the beauty niche. After 10 days, Offer A was clearly outperforming Offer B with a 98% confidence level. However, I continued the test for another 5 days to see if the results would change. In hindsight, I should have stopped the test earlier and allocated all my traffic to Offer A to maximize my profits.
Q: How can I optimize my testing budget to get the most reliable results?
A: To optimize your testing budget, focus on high-quality traffic sources that closely match your target audience. This will help you get more accurate results with fewer clicks, reducing your overall testing costs. Additionally, consider using retargeting to reach users who have already shown interest in your offer. This can lead to higher conversion rates and more efficient use of your testing budget. For example, when I was testing a supplement offer, I initially allocated $500 for testing using Google Ads. However, by refining my targeting and using retargeting, I was able to get the same results with just $300 in ad spend.
Dealing with losing campaigns
Sometimes things don't go right, however much you test an offer. However, in such situations, your mindset is what can push you through.
Super affiliate Ian Fernando puts it like this:
When it comes to losing campaigns, affiliates need to have a good head on their shoulders and be very positive. What you need to learn about the industry is that it's like a roller coaster. It goes up and down. Even as a super affiliate, there are days and months when I don't make as much profit. So you have to live with it and understand that this business shifts and things can shift even by tomorrow. But having a mindset of understanding that, okay, this time I’m not profitable, but I might be profitable tomorrow, let me just swallow my pride and ego and just run through it. That’s the way it works
Conclusion
Split-testing affiliate offers is a really important skill for any serious affiliate marketer. It means testing out different offers and gathering enough data to figure out which ones are the most profitable. This helps you optimize your campaigns so you can make the most money.
It's important to remember that there isn't a one-size-fits-all way to do split testing. The trick is to test for long enough so you can be confident in your results, but not so long that you miss out on potential profits.
To make sure you're doing split-testing right, use a reliable split-test calculator and follow the best practices. It's all about combining the creative side of marketing with the scientific side of analyzing data. When you do that, you'll be on your way to success in affiliate marketing.
